The maritime industry is bracing for a seismic shift as carriers weigh the decision to revert to the Suez Canal after months of Cape of Good Hope diversions. This seemingly simple change has profound implications, not just for freight rates but for the entire global supply chain.
Why? Because when the Suez becomes the norm again, the reduction in voyage tonne-miles will expose the glaring overcapacity in the market, driving freight rates down—particularly on the Asia-Europe trades. According to Drewry, rerouting via the Cape reduced effective capacity by approximately 9%, a key factor in carriers posting robust quarterly profits over the past year. But now, the industry stands on the brink of a sharp correction.
Redefining the Market: Overcapacity and Pricing Challenges
The Global Shipper’s Forum (GSF) and MDS Transmodal estimate that if Red Sea transits resume, 70 ships with around 500,000 TEU capacity will become surplus. This surplus creates a new headache for shippers and carriers alike, as freight rates plummet and market volatility takes centre stage.
Matthew Gore, partner at HFW, underscores the dilemma shippers face in navigating contract negotiations. A “wait-and-see” approach sounds safe but leaves businesses vulnerable. Spot rates, predicted to trend downward but remain volatile, provide little reassurance. Gore’s advice? Consider index-linked contracts or innovative agreements like “twin-rate contracts”—a Cape rate for the longer route and a reduced Red Sea rate once services resume.
James Hookham of GSF calls twin-rate contracts a bold but necessary innovation, reflecting resilience planning seen in other sectors. Yet even he acknowledges the challenge of securing commitments in an environment as turbulent as 2025’s freight market is predicted to be.
The Critical Role of Real-Time Supply Chain Visibility
Here’s the truth: regardless of Cape or Suez, shippers and Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) need more than rate flexibility to thrive—they need visibility. Implementing supply chain and climate-impact visibility software isn’t just a nice-to-have; it’s a survival tool.
Such software provides real-time data insights, enabling Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) and LSPs to make business-critical decisions amid unpredictable shifts in routes, rates, and capacity. It allows businesses to map out the full scope of their supply chains, anticipate bottlenecks, and adapt to sudden disruptions. Whether it’s gauging the impact of returning to Suez or managing overcapacity, having a clear view of the numbers is no longer optional—it’s mission-critical.
As Hookham aptly puts it, “resilience planning” isn’t just for major crises; it’s for anticipating and navigating the small, compounding challenges that define modern shipping. If transparency and data-driven decisions can protect supply chains from the ripple effects of Suez shifts, the industry has no excuse to hold back.
Final Thoughts: Innovate or Be Left Behind
The future of shipping contracts, from twin-rate deals to index-linked agreements, will be defined by innovation and transparency. But to make these strategies work, the foundation must be a visible, measurable, and data-driven supply chain. Companies that embrace real-time insights will lead; those that cling to traditional models will struggle to keep up.
As 2025 looms, the industry’s leaders won’t just be those offering lower rates. They’ll be the ones offering certainty in an uncertain world.