Sailing around the Cape of Good Hope has long been regarded as a risky venture, even in the age of modern vessels with reinforced hulls and cutting-edge navigation technology. But recent incidents have raised fresh concerns about the suitability of today’s colossal containerships for the volatile conditions in these waters.
In just a few months, the maritime industry has witnessed two major container-loss incidents. The CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin lost 44 containers and sustained damage to another 30 in July. More recently, the CMA CGM Belem saw 99 containers plummet into the ocean, further shaking confidence in shipping through treacherous regions like the Cape. These incidents, coupled with the capsizing and breakup of the bulk carrier Ultra Galaxy in a late-winter storm off Cape Town, underscore the persistent dangers of this notorious route.
The Dynamics of Danger
As the southern hemisphere transitions from winter to spring, the question looms: has the most perilous period passed, or are we entering a new phase of heightened risk? Mike Yarwood, MD of loss prevention at TT Club, notes that this period is one of critical analysis. “I am trying to rationalise whether that means that the most high-risk period of the year has passed, or is passing now, or whether they expect a deterioration through their spring and summer months,” he said.
One of the most treacherous phenomena mariners face in this region is parametric rolling. This occurs when the wavelength of the ocean surface synchronises with a vessel’s rolling motion, amplifying each roll and pushing the ship closer to its limits. As vessels roll violently, container stacks are subject to immense stress, with the risk of containers buckling, collapsing, or toppling overboard.
Shipping lines have developed strategies to mitigate these risks, such as placing heavier containers at the base of stacks. However, a concerning discrepancy – estimated at around 20% – exists between planned stowage and actual stowage, leading to potential imbalances that exacerbate these risks.
Shifting Routes and New Pressures
Historically, vessels could avoid the harsh conditions of the Cape by rerouting through the Suez Canal and Red Sea. However, geopolitical tensions, including Houthi attacks, have made these waters increasingly perilous, forcing many shipping lines to revert to the Cape route despite the dangers.
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing impact of climate change. The Environmental Defence Fund predicts that shipping’s climate-related costs could rise from $3bn annually to a staggering $7.5bn by 2050. Changes in ocean conditions, driven by climate instability, will amplify the risks faced by ships navigating these already-challenging waters.
The Critical Need for Real-Time Visibility
In such volatile environments, relying solely on traditional approaches is no longer enough. Shipping lines, BCOs, and LSPs need real-time visibility software that can deliver actionable insights on supply chain risks. By leveraging real-time data on factors like container weight distribution, route weather patterns, and ocean conditions, firms can make crucial decisions to safeguard their operations. Advanced software tools provide the visibility and predictive insights needed to counteract disruptions and prevent catastrophic losses.
TT Club’s Peregrine Storrs-Fox emphasises the importance of collaborative efforts across the industry to address these challenges: “Ships will never be able to avoid the impact of heavy seas entirely. Consequently, TT, in furtherance of its mission to make the global logistics industry safer, more secure, and more sustainable, continues with its efforts on this issue and urges industry colleagues to do likewise.”