As disruption from China’s Golden Week subsides, airlines are swiftly reallocating capacity to the lucrative Asia Pacific-North America routes, just as the holiday shopping season ramps up. According to the US National Retail Federation (NRF), consumer spending for the holidays is expected to rise by 2.5%-3.5% compared to last year, with e-commerce seeing a robust growth of 8%-9%, potentially reaching $297.9 billion.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. He highlighted that wage growth and a strong job market are set to bolster consumer spending during the critical winter holidays.

Airlines are responding to these economic conditions, ramping up capacity in key routes. Data from Rotate’s capacity database shows that Asia Pacific to North America saw a 6% rise in available seats last week alone. The increase is even more pronounced in specific regions, with capacity out of Shanghai to North America up 17.5% and from Hong Kong up 11.7%.

Cathay Pacific’s chief customer and commercial officer, Lavinia Lau, confirmed the demand surge: “We expect robust demand during the peak season, driven by e-commerce, high-tech goods, and perishables from Asia and the Americas.” Cathay Pacific reported a strong 11% year-on-year increase in volumes for September, underscoring the buoyant market conditions.

The Growing Importance of Real-time Data and Supply Chain Visibility

While airlines are racing to meet demand, the complex global supply chain is under mounting pressure. From unpredictable weather events, such as hurricanes, to economic factors like tariffs, the ability for Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) and Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) to make agile, data-driven decisions is critical.

The need for real-time supply chain and climate impact visibility software is increasingly clear. Such tools enable businesses to access real-time insights, anticipate potential disruptions, and counteract supply chain risks before they escalate. As Cathay Pacific observed an uptick in shipments across its Cathay Fresh and Cathay Priority solutions, it becomes evident that time-sensitive shipments require a heightened level of visibility and coordination to succeed in today’s fast-paced logistics environment.

According to the NRF, however, risks remain on the horizon. The organisation recently warned that any new tariffs imposed by the US could stifle consumer spending. Research from the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates existing tariffs already cost US households between $1,500 and $3,000 annually, and this could rise to over $4,000 under further trade restrictions.

NRF’s Shay emphasised the downstream impact of tariffs, stating: “Tariffs are paid by the importer, not the producing country, and that cost is passed directly onto consumers.”

Climate and Supply Chain Resilience: The Path Forward

The aviation and logistics sectors must continue innovating to ensure resilience and sustainability. Airlines and LSPs that leverage advanced supply chain software will be better positioned to manage challenges such as economic shifts, tariffs, and climate disruptions. This technology is no longer a luxury—it’s a necessity for those aiming to remain competitive and mitigate risks in an increasingly uncertain world.

In the fast-evolving landscape of global trade, visibility isn’t just about knowing where goods are; it’s about using real-time data to forecast, react, and safeguard business-critical decisions.