Maersk, the world’s second-largest container shipper, has delivered a surprising update to investors, reporting stronger-than-expected performance in the second quarter of 2024. After starting the year with caution, Maersk has revised its operating profit forecast to between $3 and $5 billion for 2024, having already earned $1.1 billion in the first half. Despite ongoing uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Red Sea, the company’s outlook has brightened, driven by robust market demand and strategic foresight.

Adapting to a Resilient and Dynamic Market

CEO Vincent Clerc has been vocal about the company’s recent performance, highlighting the container market’s unexpected resilience. Reflecting on the transition from pandemic-induced challenges to the sharp decline in rates and volume in 2023, Clerc noted that Maersk has been buoyed by strong market demand across all segments, despite ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea. This resilience has allowed Maersk to stabilise and even grow its volume, supported by a market that has begun to absorb these global disruptions.

The company’s profitability in ocean shipping has seen a positive trajectory, driven by higher freight rates that have enabled a 5.6 percent margin, despite rising operating costs. The additional distances necessitated by rerouting ships around Africa have significantly increased fuel consumption, pushing costs to new heights. Maersk also observed that shippers have accelerated their operations, likely in anticipation of further disruptions, port congestion, and potential trade tensions between the U.S. and China, exacerbated by the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Strategic Renewal and Sustainable Growth

As Maersk moves into the third quarter, Clerc emphasised that the company is set to benefit further from the full impact of higher rates, particularly given Maersk’s substantial contract business. Clerc pointed to strong growth in Chinese exports and expressed confidence that a U.S. recession is not imminent. He adjusted the global container market growth forecast to between 4 and 6 percent, up from an earlier estimate of 2.5 to 4.5 percent.

However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential rush to move Christmas merchandise and the status of year-end inventory levels. Clerc suggested that freight rates may have peaked as congestion eases and new capacity enters the market.

In contrast to many of its competitors, Maersk has been conservative in placing new orders, with industry analysts noting that other top carriers now have larger order books. Yet, Maersk is poised to accelerate its fleet renewal programme, increasing its capital forecast by $1 billion annually to between $10 and $11 billion. The company plans to order 50 to 60 new containerships, focusing on fleet renewal rather than expansion, maintaining its existing fleet size of 4.1 to 4.3 million TEU.

Maersk’s strategy for new orders is firmly rooted in sustainability, with a goal to equip 25 percent of its fleet with dual-fuel engines. The company has been clear that new vessels will be ordered only if they offer green fuel options, underscoring Maersk’s commitment to reducing its environmental footprint. Clerc acknowledged that the future of maritime fuel is likely to involve multiple technologies, with Maersk actively securing offtake agreements for liquefied bio-methane (bio-LNG).

The Essential Role of Supply Chain and Environmental Visibility Software

In this evolving landscape, the need for supply chain and environmental impact visibility software is becoming increasingly critical. As shipping lines, such as Maersk, navigate the complexities of global shipping, real-time data insights are essential for Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs), Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) and future innovation within the industry to derive greater value. These insights allow them to make informed, business-critical decisions that can mitigate disruptions and optimise their supply chains.

The integration of such visibility solutions will not only help track and manage environmental impacts in real-time but also enable more agile and responsive operations. As the companies push forward with their sustainability goals, this technology will be indispensable in ensuring that the industry can adapt quickly to changes in the market and maintain a competitive edge.

Containership fires continue to pose a serious threat to the global shipping industry, with the latest incident occurring this week at Sri Lanka’s port of Colombo. In the early hours of Sunday, a fire broke out aboard the MSC Capetown III while it was docked at the Jaya Container Terminal (JCT), as reported by the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA).

The fire, believed to have originated in the under-deck cargo space, quickly escalated into an explosion. The SLPA praised the rapid response of firefighters for preventing what could have been a catastrophic event. “Our firefighters, led by the harbour master, in collaboration with other port services, acted swiftly to extinguish the fire and safely remove affected cargo,” said Operations Director HJ Kumara.

Media reports indicate that the vessel’s manifest data showed only one dangerous cargo container, which had already been offloaded along with 60 other boxes before any fire or smoke was detected. The Madeira-flagged vessel, operating on MSC’s South-east Asia-East Africa service, had arrived from Singapore and was scheduled to perform 995 container discharges and 880 container lifts. Colombo, a key intermediate hub in Asia, handles the majority of the Indian Subcontinent’s containerized transshipment trade.

While no injuries were reported, the SLPA has launched an investigation to determine the cause of the fire and assess the status of the cargo remaining on board. This incident follows two other major ship fires in recent weeks: one on the Maersk Frankfurt, off the Indian coast, and another involving an explosion and fire on the YM Mobility at Ningbo Port in China.

These recent incidents highlight the ongoing challenges and risks associated with containership fires, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance and swift action in the face of such emergencies.

The shipping industry is facing an alarming surge in cyber-attacks, with IT infrastructure and ransom schemes increasingly targeted by malicious actors. According to research from the Netherlands’ Stenden University of Applied Sciences, the industry endured at least 64 cyber-attacks last year—a sharp rise compared to previous years, as reported by the Financial Times.

This dramatic increase in cyber threats marks a significant shift from a decade ago. In 2013, the maritime sector suffered just three cyber-attacks, and none were recorded in 2003. The current data, derived from comprehensive reviews of company records, media coverage, and academic studies, underscores the growing vulnerability of the industry.

State-backed hackers from a small group of countries are responsible for the bulk of these attacks. Russia leads the charge, followed by China, North Korea, and Iran, together accounting for roughly 80% of the cyber-attacks that can be traced to known assailants. The rise in these attacks coincides with escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has prompted the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) to issue warnings about targeted strikes on the rules-based global order, which has been vital to the shipping industry since World War II.

“The international rules-based order…the great system [that benefited shipping] since the Second World War is under threat like never before,” warns Guy Platten, secretary-general of the ICS, which represents shipowners controlling around 80% of the global commercial fleet.

One of the most destructive attacks was attributed to Russian agents in 2017, targeting Maersk. This assault took the company’s IT systems offline as part of a coordinated attack on several global corporations, demonstrating the far-reaching impact of cyber warfare on the maritime industry.

The Vulnerability Exposed by the CrowdStrike Outage

The recent outage at CrowdStrike, a leading cybersecurity firm, has further highlighted the vulnerabilities within the shipping industry and beyond. CrowdStrike’s temporary disruption revealed the heavy reliance that many organisations, including those within the maritime sector, have on cybersecurity services. The incident underscored the potential risks associated with centralised security infrastructures, where a single point of failure can expose entire networks to increased cyber threats.

For the shipping industry, this outage served as a stark reminder of the importance of having robust, multi-layered security strategies in place. The incident also illustrated the critical need for real-time visibility across the supply chain, allowing companies to detect and respond to cyber threats swiftly, even when key cybersecurity tools are compromised.

The Urgent Need for Real-Time Supply Chain Visibility

As cyber threats escalate, it is crucial for businesses within the shipping industry to adopt robust supply chain and climate impact visibility software. These tools provide real-time data insights, enabling Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) and Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) to make informed, business-critical decisions that can mitigate the effects of cyber-attacks and other disruptions on their supply chains.

Real-time visibility not only helps companies quickly identify and respond to cyber threats but also empowers them to navigate the broader challenges posed by geopolitical instability. By integrating advanced visibility solutions, BCOs and LSPs can enhance their operational resilience, ensuring that they can continue to deliver goods efficiently and sustainably, even in the face of rising cyber threats.

The need for such technology has never been more pressing. As the shipping industry contends with both growing cyber risks and the impacts of climate change, real-time data insights will be essential for maintaining the stability and security of global supply chains. This proactive approach will not only protect individual companies but also reinforce the integrity of the international trade system that has supported the industry for decades.

In a dramatic turn of events, a ship carrying hazardous cargo exploded at the Port of Ningbo-Zhoushan in Zhejiang province, China, around 1:50 PM local time. The explosion, which sent a massive fireball skyward and scattered debris across the port, underscores the urgent need for improved safety measures in maritime logistics.

Video footage from the state-run China News Network (CCTV) captured the fireball erupting and debris being flung high into the air. The shockwave from the blast was so intense that it caused the roof of a nearby company canteen to collapse and rattled bottles in surrounding stores. Thick black smoke was later observed rising from the cargo hold of the vessel.

The ship involved, the Dong Ming, is operated by Taiwanese container shipping company Yang Ming and was docked at the Beilun Port area. According to maritime search and rescue officials, the vessel was carrying organic peroxide, a highly reactive chemical classified under hazard class 5.2. This classification indicates that the cargo must be kept refrigerated to prevent combustion and the release of harmful fumes.

Reports suggest that the cargo’s water-cooling system was not operational, potentially due to Ningbo’s recent hot weather, which exacerbated the risk. The ship was en route from Shanghai to the Middle East when the incident occurred. Fire tugboats and response teams are on-site, and port officials are investigating the cause of the explosion. Thankfully, no injuries have been reported, but nearby residents are being evacuated as a precaution.

This incident at one of the world’s largest ports, which handles hundreds of millions of tankers, bulk carriers, and containerships annually, highlights the critical need for stringent safety measures and protocols in handling hazardous materials. The Port of Ningbo-Zhoushan’s explosive event serves as a stark reminder of the potential hazards in global logistics and the importance of ensuring robust safety systems and preparedness for such emergencies.

There’s been a lot of talk about “friendshoring” since Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen first used the term in 2022. This concept, which emphasises strengthening trade ties with allied countries to enhance supply chain resilience, marks a key distinction between the Biden administration’s approach and that of its predecessor. However, turning this idea into actionable strategy has proven challenging, partly due to a lack of detailed insights into the US’s own industrial capacity and that of its allies. 

Building Resilience Through Collaboration 

Recognising the necessity for deeper insights, the Commerce Department launched a Supply Chain Center last year to work with private sector partners on comprehensive supply chain mapping. This centre has now started trialling a supply chain exposure tool that analyses trade and customs data from the US and its allies, painting a detailed picture of supply chain risks and opportunities. 

The objective is to evaluate the robustness of supply chains in critical sectors like semiconductors, critical minerals, and consumer electronics. This tool helps determine how quickly critical inputs can be replaced from allied countries in the event of disruptions such as war, pandemics, or natural disasters. Additionally, it assesses dependencies on single nations like China or Russia. 

“We wanted to create a common operating picture and shared set of facts for supply chain discussions with allies in Europe or nations that are part of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework,” says Grant Harris, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Analysis. “Our baseline for those discussions too often had been, ‘we should all do more,’ and then things would stall because we didn’t have the data for a more detailed conversation.” 

Strategic Supply Chain Insights 

This effort represents the most granular attempt by the US government to map global chokepoints across various commercial sectors. According to several supply chain experts, no other nation — apart from China — is undertaking such extensive cross-border mapping. 

The Biden administration’s 100-day report on supply chains identified general vulnerabilities in areas like chips, critical minerals, and pharmaceuticals. Subsequent legislation, notably the Chips and Science Act, has aimed to address these vulnerabilities. However, this new tool offers more specific insights into vulnerabilities several layers deep in the supply chain. 

For example, while Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) nations might collectively appear to have a secure 33 percent market share of a crucial electronics component, this tool reveals that the majority of this supply comes from a single country that imports most of its inputs from China. 

Despite limitations in real-time data and the complexity of creating a comprehensive map, the tool is a significant advancement in understanding global supply chain dynamics. Harvard Business School professor Willy Shih points out that supply chain visibility can uncover surprising dependencies, such as the concentration of roofing nail suppliers in Beijing. While these are less concerning than dependencies on electrical steel or broadband infrastructure, they underscore the importance of detailed supply chain mapping. 

The Role of Real-Time Data and Insights 

To ensure the success of such initiatives, implementing supply chain and climate impact visibility software is crucial. This technology provides real-time data insights, essential for Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) and Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) to make informed, business-critical decisions. For instance, real-time tracking of Scope 3 emissions from shipments allows companies to monitor emissions as they occur, enabling a more agile and responsive approach to sustainability goals. 

Real-time visibility not only helps achieve environmental targets but also allows stakeholders to navigate supply chain impacts more effectively. This ensures smoother operations and greater adaptability in a dynamic market environment. 

Advancing Friendshoring and Supply Chain Resilience 

The new supply chain exposure tool aims to identify major risk hubs, facilitating more strategic and effective conversations with trade partners. For example, can global demand for antimony ore, essential for battery alloys, be met by Australian supply? Can more laptop components be sourced from the Netherlands? 

Supply chain experts like Shih and Christopher Gopal, a member of the DoD’s Defense Business Board, see value in risk mapping. However, they emphasise that real demand signals are necessary to create economically sustainable shifts in global supply chains. Knowing where supply lies is one thing; making it economically viable to produce goods in rich countries is another. 

This is where friendshoring comes into play. Envisioning partnerships around electric vehicles or clean tech that involve sourcing critical minerals in Australia, leveraging Japanese production capacity, and utilising the power of the US consumer market can create competitive, sustainable products. 

As more is known about global production, a less nationalistic and more cooperative conversation about creating global supply chain resiliency may emerge. This goal has bipartisan appeal in the US, where the Promoting Resilient Supply Chains Act, which aims to codify risk mapping, passed the House unanimously. Eliminating chokepoints is a universally agreed objective. 

In conclusion, the new supply chain exposure tool and the emphasis on friendshoring are pivotal steps toward a more resilient, efficient, and sustainable global supply chain. These advancements, combined with real-time data insights, empower BCOs and LSPs to make informed decisions, ultimately enhancing the robustness of global trade networks. 

As the lead time for Chinese exports to the US east coast remains just over two months, the urgency for US importers to bolster their stocks and supply levels intensifies. According to Flexport’s Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI), current cargo transit times from China to the east coast sit at 61 days. This gives US importers limited time to prepare, as strike action could occur after September 30th, when the current International Longshoreman Association (ILA) and US Maritime Alliance (USMX) contract terminates.

With contract negotiations yet to begin due to disagreements over port automation, industry leaders like Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, emphasise that this week is the “last chance” for an average US import shipper to move products for arrival before a potential strike hits US East and Gulf coast ports. 

Jensen also urged: “Some shippers might have a shorter landside operation in China and/or use a more expedited shipping route, but even these are, in the near term, hitting the point where any additional cargo shipped on this route runs the risk of being impacted by labour disruptions.”

The OTI also showed that the China-to-US west coast lead time was approximately 40 days, while the China-to-Europe lead time increased from 69 days to 69.5 days. This is due to European port congestion nearing pandemic highs, and previous delays caused by extreme weather around the Cape of Good Hope posing ongoing challenges. Therefore, European lead times are expected to fall over the coming weeks as the bottlenecks from delays are resolved, returning ports to within expected delay timeframes.

The Importance of Supply Chain Visibility

In light of these ongoing challenges with growing lead times, implementing supply chain visibility software is more critical than ever. By providing real-time data and insights, BCOs and LSPs are more able to understand current lead times and expected delays on their trade routes. This allows for proactive action to be taken to counteract disruptions, ensuring timely and continued operations.

The subtle yet significant need for such visibility underscores the comprehensive approach required to navigate today’s complex supply chain landscape. Firms equipped with real-time insights are better positioned to mitigate risks, optimise operations, and maintain continuity in the face of uncertainties, thereby setting new standards for efficiency and resilience in global trade.