With the Red Sea crisis showing no signs of abating, vessels travelling between Asia and Europe are increasingly opting to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This change presents a fresh challenge for European importers and their logistics service providers (LSPs): identifying the final cut-off date for Christmas goods departing from Asia.

The Surge in Spot Rates: Is This an Early Peak Season?

Over the past two months, the logistics industry has been abuzz with discussions about the causes behind soaring spot rates. A key question is whether we are witnessing an early peak season. Many European forwarders believe this to be the case, which raises another question: when will it end?

This year, the Asia-Europe peak season is expected to conclude two weeks earlier than usual. This adjustment makes the timing of China’s Golden Week holiday particularly challenging. Starting on 1 October, China halts operations for a week, leading to a rush at ports beforehand to maximise cargo exports, often followed by a surge once work resumes.

“If you don’t get your cargo on the ship and miss the last vessel out of Asia at the end of September, peak season will be very challenging. That’s when we’ll start to see a spike in air freight,” a senior forwarder told The Loadstar.

Timing for Christmas Shipments: The Crucial Dates

Most retailers aim to have all goods in their system two weeks before Christmas, meaning all shipping and transport from ports must be completed by 10 December at the latest. Considering current haulage booking waits in the UK, which are around seven days, vessels need to arrive by approximately 23-24 November. Proforma schedules from several carriers indicate that the current transit time from Shanghai to Felixstowe is between six and seven weeks, assuming no delays.

For example, the 2M’s AE55/Griffin Sweeper service, departing Shanghai on 5 October, is scheduled to arrive at Felixstowe on 16 November. Another departure from Shanghai on 12 November has an ETA of 23 November, both with transit times of 47 days. The Ocean Alliance’s NEU1 and NEU6 services advertise transit times of 42-44 days for the same route.

However, with global schedule reliability currently at around 50% and vessel arrivals averaging five days late, it is uncertain whether cargo loaded on these ships during Golden Week will reach the UK in time for distribution and retail by Christmas.

The Importance of Real-Time Supply Chain Visibility

In light of these challenges, the implementation of real-time supply chain visibility software becomes essential. This technology provides Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) and LSPs with critical data insights, enabling them to make informed business decisions and mitigate supply chain disruptions.

“I believe this is indeed an early peak season, but I also think it will extend until Golden Week. After discussions with customers, they are aware of the current challenges and do not want to risk having no stock for Christmas. They are planning for strong orders up to that point,” a forwarder explained to The Loadstar.

Real-time data insights from visibility software can help manage these complexities, offering accurate information on vessel locations, potential delays, and alternative routes. This proactive approach is vital for navigating the early peak season and ensuring the timely delivery of Christmas goods despite ongoing disruptions.

In conclusion, as the Asia-Europe peak season shifts earlier and the Red Sea crisis persists, the necessity for real-time supply chain visibility is clearer than ever. By leveraging advanced technology, BCOs and LSPs can enhance their decision-making capabilities, ensuring resilience and efficiency in their supply chains during these critical periods.